One technique for doing that involves scenario building, a planning device that incorporates current data, trends and likely world-changing events to postulate future workforce needs. Essentially, scenarios are carefully developed views of the future.

The Energy Department is one federal agency that’s using scenarios to forecast its workforce demands. Its Office of Science is leading the way, said Jeff Pon, Energy’s chief human capital officer.

In its fiscal 2006 workforce plan, the office details potential influences such as new presidential directions, technology changes and a shifting of research emphasis from one energy source to another.

“Our entire organization is building that capability,” Pon said.

Here are some key points to bear mind when creating scenarios, according to Gartner’s Jones:

• Realize that there may be not just one but several potential futures.
• Isolate variables that might change and affect what you’ll be trying to do in the future.
• Get information from enough sources to ensure you’re getting a realistic analysis. Talk to the business people in the functional areas, do the research, look at trends, demographics, projections for the future and the direction that technology is taking.
• Take into account many different aspects of what might happen, put together a number of strong scenarios, then validate them by talking with people in the business areas.
• Stay with it. Some of your scenarios will be on target, others won’t, which is why a workforce plan needs a constant hand on the helm, regular evaluations and modifications. “It’s not a science, but an art,” Jones said.